The election contest in the newly-drawn 5th Supervisor District had been shaping up into a two-woman race between Supervisor Katrina Foley, a Democrat, and Republican Diane Harkey, a former member of the state Assembly and the Board of Equalization.
Until last week, when state Senator Pat Bates unexpectedly entered the lists and declared her candidacy for 5th District Supervisor – a position she held from 2007 to 2014.
The 5th District is currently represented by Supervisor Lisa Bartlett, who is termed out and running for Congress against two-term, progressive Democrat Rep. Mike Levin.
5th Supervisor District: South County and GOP-Oriented
The newly-drawn 5th District includes the cities of Aliso Viejo, Costa Mesa, Dana Point, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Newport Beach, San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano, plus the unincorporated communities of Coto de Caza, Ladera Ranch, Las Flores and Rancho Mission Viejo.
It tilts distinctly Republican in voter affiliation:
- 37.4 Republican
- 33.6% Democrat
- 23.1 No Party Preference
Demographically, it is predominantly white:
- 60.1% White
- 20.1% Hispanic
- 12.6% Asian
- 1.3% Black
- 5.1% Multiracial
Long And Winding Road In 5th Supervisor District Campaign
It’s been a long and winding road for 5th Supervisor District candidates. Before the current lines were made official, candidates included Mission Viejo Councilman Greg Raths and former county firefighters union boss Joe Kerr.
Redistricting moved Mission Viejo into the 3rd Supervisor District, which is represented by Supervisor Don Wagner and is not on the ballot until 2024. Raths dropped out and announced he was running for Congress, instead.
Kerr, who previously run for the Board of Supervisors in the 4th District, ended his campaign for the 5th District and switched to running for the newly-drawn 38th Senate District.
Katrina Foley, then the mayor of Costa Mesa, was elected to the OC Board of Supervisors in a March 2021 special election. This past December, however, Costa Mesa was moved from the west Orange County-based 2nd District into the South County-based 5th District – forcing Foley to seek re-election two years earlier than expected in a district where voters are unfamiliar with her.
On the Republican side, the leading candidates for Harkey and Newport Beach Councilwoman Diane Dixon. Harkey had run for Congress in 2018, but lost to Levin in a wipe-out year for Republicans that saw Democrats sweep every congressional race in Orange County.
Harkey had already pocketed the OC GOP endorsement for the seat. Party leaders prevailed upon Dixon to return to her earlier plans to run again for state Assembly: Dixon had narrowly lost her bid to defeat Democrat Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris in 2020.
Dixon and Harkey endorsed each other’s respective bids. Harkey had also garnered a slew of high-profile endorsements, including Rep. Michelle Steel, Assemblymembers Laurie Davies, and Steven Choi, Supervisors Don Wagner and Andrew Do, Sheriff Don Barnes, and the powerful Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs (AOCDS).
“The Republican Party is proud to endorse Diane Harkey for Supervisor in District 5,” said Chairman Fred Whitaker. “Diane is an effective and tireless advocate for stronger law enforcement, lower taxes and less intrusive government.”
Harkey was positioned as the sole Republican clear front-runner in a one-on-one contest with Foley.
Bates Scrambles The Equation
That scenario was up-ended by entry into the race of Bates, a well-known name and proven vote-getter in South County.
Bates has held elected office in South Orange County almost continuously since 1989, when she was elected to Laguna Niguel’s first city council after the city incorporated. She served on that council until 1998, when she won a hard-fought primary election for Assembly before cruising to a general election win.
Forced out of the Assembly by term limits in 2004, Bates ran for the OC Board of Supervisors two years later from the 5th District. She defeated Laguna Niguel Councilwoman Cassie DeYoung in bitter election in which the wealthy, free-spending DeYoung shattered county records for campaign spending in a supervisorial contest.
Bates was re-elected in 2010, and in 2014 was elected to the state Senate and re-elected in 2018.
Bates can point to endorsements from the Lincoln Club of Orange County and a number of Republican influentials, including Rep. Darrell Issa, Linda and Wayne Lindholm, Doy Henley, Manuel Ramirez, John Warner, John and Carolyn Ben, David Bahnsen, former Senator John Moorlach, and Susan Spanos.
“Senator Pat Bates is the only candidate who can beat radical liberal Katrina Foley,” said Lincoln Club President teresa Hernandez in a statement. “Senator Bates captured the attention of the donor community with her sensational leadership in Sacramento as she has pushed back against the anti-business, anti-public safety, and anti-freedom agendas which are plaguing our county and our state.”
All three candidates have healthy campaign treasuries.
According to the most recent campaign disclosure filings, Harkey has $295,214.40 cash-on-hand, as well as $203,592.82 in debt (nearly all in the form of personal loans to her campaign). The AOCDS – 800-pound gorilla of county government politics – has $1.2 million cash-on-hand; the deputies union has endorsed Harkey and has the ability and inclination to spend heavily on behalf of its endorsed candidates.
Bates has $34,967.61 cash-on-hand in a supervisor account that is a carry-over from her previous supervisor campaigns and includes $437,000 in debt in the form of personal loans to her campaign during the 2006 election donnybrook with DeYoung.
According to her campaign, Bates has raised $150,000 since jumping in to the race last week, and can transfer more than $200,000 from various other campaign accounts.
While Foley has a 2022 supervisor campaign, all her campaign funds are in a committee formed on December 23, 2021, called “Stand Up for Katrina Foley, OC Neighbors Against The Recall.” That committee reports $160,568.90 cash-on-hand. Presumably, the recall this committee is “standing up” against refers to an effort by anti-vaccine mandate activists recall the entire Board of Supervisors.
Shaping Up As Battle For Who Faces Foley
The election is set for the June 7 primary ballot. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to the November ballot.
“On the Republican side in this race, Diane Harkey had all but sewn up a spot in a November runoff against liberal Democrat incumbent Katrina Foley,” observed GOP strategist Jon Fleischman, who has not endorsed any candidate in the race. “But now popular State Senator and former Supervisor Pat Bates has jumped in with both feet, upending the race.”
“Harkey has a boat load of GOP endorsements, including the Orange County Republican Party. Bates is popular and we will see what kind of support she pulls together,” Fleischman continued.
“It seems to me that both Harkey and Bates will file, and as far as I know Newport Beach Councilman Kevin Muldoon is also still planning a run,” said Fleischman, who publishes the FlashReport.org. “That said, there is zero chance that Foley wins this outright in June, so there will be one Republican left standing for the November runoff.”
Fleischman’s observations jibe with the general view among political insiders: Bates entry means this contest will go to November run-off and it is virtually certain Foley will be one of the top two candidates as the sole Democrat and running with the ballot title “Orange County Supervisor.”
In June, the real battle will be between Harkey and Bates over which Republican will face off against Foley in November.
