Similar to how it scrambles the politics of central-north Orange County, the newly-approved supervisorial map upends South County politics by depositing Supervisor Katrina Foley (D) – elected from the 2nd District earlier this year – into the 5th District, which is currently represented by Supervisor Lisa Bartlett (R).
Bartlett is termed out, however, so this does not pit the two incumbents against each other.
Foley has to contend with the conservative cities of South County who wield a majority of the population of this district, in addition to conservative Newport Beach. On the other hand, she does gain more of liberal Irvine, Laguna Beach is liberal, and Aliso Viejo and Laguna Woods are actually purple.
Prior to the lines being redrawn, former Assemblywoman/former Board of Equalization Chair Diane Harkey (R) and Mission Viejo Councilman Greg Raths (R) had declared for the 5th District seat, and Dana Point Councilman Joe Muller (R) had been eyeing the seat. In the 2nd District, Huntington Beach Councilman Mike Posey (R), Newport Beach Councilwoman Diane Dixon (R), Newport Beach Councilman Kevin Muldoon (R), and Fountain Valley Councilman Michael Vo (R) had all declared for the 2nd District seat.
Raths, Posey, and Vo have all been drawn out of the seat, leaving Harkey (R), Dixon (R), Muldoon (R), and possibly Muller (R) to challenge Foley (D). Awkwardly, Dixon and Muldoon had earlier endorsed Harkey when they were running in different districts.
Harkey was already endorsed by the Republican Party of Orange County. Having been elected to the State Assembly three times representing the South County cities, the Board of Equalization representing the entire district, and winning the South County cities in her unsuccessful bid for Congress (San Diego County defeated her), Harkey is the front-runner among Republicans.
It would not be out of the question to see Foley (D) vs. Harkey (R) head-to-head in the June election, which would preclude a run-off (unlike in legislative seats, a supervisorial candidate can end the election by surpassing 50% in the primary). However, it’s entirely possible some Republican spoiler might run in the primary and force a November run-off. In either instance, the final two candidates are very likely Foley (D) and Harkey (R).
Odd Men Out
Huntington Beach’s Posey (R) and Fountain Valley’s Vo (R) had previously announced for the 2nd District Supervisor’s race to challenge Supervisor Foley (D), but both cities have since been moved into the 1st District. Posey and Vo are both termed out from their Council seats in 2022, but the 1st District Supervisor seat is not up for election until 2024, when Supervisor Do (R) terms out.
Mission Viejo’s Raths (R) had previously announced for the 5th District Supervisor’s race to succeed the termed out Supervisor Bartlett (R), but Mission Viejo has since been moved into the 3rd District. Raths is termed out from the Council in 2026, so it is possible for Raths to run for 3rd District Supervisor in 2024, but that is highly unlikely as Supervisor Wagner (R) does not term out until 2028.
