In the most dramatic redrawing of the supervisorial map in two decades (since the 2011 redistricting was relatively tame), the Board of Supervisors has selected the map for their districts for the next decade in a 3-2 vote, with Supervisors Katrina Foley (D), Doug Chaffee (D), and Lisa Bartlett (R) in favor of the map while Andrew Do (R) and Don Wagner (R) were against the map. The Board is scheduled to adopt the ordinance for that map on December 7.
The biggest changes are the creation of a new Latino-centered district in central county, a Little Saigon-Huntington Beach-West OC district, and a district that combines the coastal cities of South County with Costa Mesa and Newport Beach. Redistricting laws required the creation of a Latino majority district as well as a district with a large Asian-American district. Also, notable is the renumbering that accomplished this, as the renumbering of the districts affects what year a seat is up for election. (Scroll to the bottom of this article for a description of each district.)
Who’s the New Supervisor?
The most intriguing implication of the redistricting is the creation of a new open 2nd District seat in Central County that is up for election in 2022, scrambling the calculus for elected officials in that seat who weren’t expecting an election in that seat so soon, as Santa Ana/Garden Grove were planning for 2024 when 1st District Supervisor Andrew Do (R) terms out, Anaheim for 2026 when 4th District Supervisor Doug Chaffee (D) terms out; and Orange and Tustin finding themselves unexpectedly in the new seat instead of with 3rd District Supervisor Don Wagner (R), who does not term out until 2028.
With Santa Ana serving as home to the majority of this district, every elected official in that city certainly is taking a look at the seat.
Mayor Vicente Sarmiento (D) has won four straight elections citywide, three for Council in 2008, 2012, and 2016, and then Mayor in 2020. In 2020, he led the slate of the new progressive majority that wrested control of the Council from the more moderate, pro-law enforcement majority. The ballot title and bully pulpit of a mayoral post is certainly a strong post for any supervisorial candidate, as shown by Costa Mesa Mayor Katrina Foley (D), Irvine Mayor Don Wagner (R), Fullerton Mayor Doug Chafee (D), and Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett (R) (and the latter two were simply rotating mayors whose colleagues made them mayor the year of their supervisorial election). If Sarmiento went to a supervisorial run-off, he would have to abandon his 2022 mayoral re-election campaign.
Former 26-year Mayor Miguel Pulido (D), who termed out in 2020, would be another contender, though from the more moderate, pro-law enforcement majority. He missed the 2020 Supervisorial run-off by 2% to Westminster Councilman Sergio Contreras, but it was Little Saigon which defeated Pulido, and that’s been drawn out of the district. In Santa Ana, Pulido actually came in first place, coming in ahead of victorious Supervisor Andrew Do (who was also drawn out of the district).
If Pulido is not the candidate of Santa Ana’s moderate, pro-law enforcement faction, then Councilmen Phil Bacerra (D) and David Penaloza (D) would certainly be contenders. Penaloza won a hotly contested 2018 election and Bacerra won a 2019 special election. Each is up for re-election in 2022 though, so he’d have to give up his Council re-election bid if he went to a supervisorial run-off.
Former Santa Ana Councilwoman Ceci Iglesias (R), also a former Santa Ana school board member, is a potential Republican contender for the seat, though she would be hobbled by having been recalled from the Council in 2020.
Turning to the next biggest city in the district is Orange, where half the City Council was drawn into the 2nd District: Councilmembers Arianna Barrios (NPP), Jon Dumitru (R), Ana Gutierrez (NPP), and Kathy Tavoularis (R). Dumitru and Tavoularis face the dual problem of being conservative Republicans in a very, very Democratic seat and being white people in a seat drawn to elect a Latino.
Barrios and Gutierrez are both Latina, and neither are Republicans. That being said, they lack any political party infrastructure since both are registered No Party Preference. On the other hand, Gutierrez defeated an OCGOP-endorsed sitting school board member for her Council seat while Barrios defeated both the DPOC-endorsed and OCGOP-endorsed candidates, as well as previously serving on the Rancho Santiago Community College District, which covers most of the supervisorial district (specifically, Santa Ana, Orange, and far eastern Garden Grove). Barrios and Tavoularis are each up for re-election in 2022 though, so she’d have to give up her Council re-election bid if she went to a supervisorial run-off.
Former Orange Councilman Mike Alvarez (R) could be the leading Latino Republican contender for the seat. However, he has the awkward problem of having previously been tossed from office by a judge due to being re-elected despite being termed out. On the other hand, Alvarez has won five Council elections (even if he wasn’t eligible to run in the fifth one). His ouster from office by a judge is less politically awkward than Iglesias’s recall by the voters, though both are certainly impediments to either candidacy.
Anaheim, OC’s largest city, finds itself the third-biggest city in this district due to how much the city is split in three supervisorial districts. Because Anaheim is split into three for the Board of Supervisors, there is exactly one City Councilmember in the 2nd Supervisorial District: Avelino Valencia III (D). (Councilmen Steve Faessel (R) and Jose Moreno (D) each live next to the district border, but both are in the 4th District.) Elected in 2020, Valencia won in a landslide over a sitting school board member. As City Council is a part-time job, it must be noted that Valencia’s day job is working for Assemblyman Tom Daly (D).
Daly has long desired to serve on the Board of Supervisors. (There was a long-rumored deal of a seat swap planned for 2010 between then-Clerk-Recorder Daly and Supervisor Chris Norby (R), but the deal went out the window when Assemblyman Mike Duvall (R) resigned in 2009 and Norby won Duvall’s seat in a special election. Daly instead ran for re-election as Clerk-Recorder in 2010 and then won an Assembly seat in 2012.) Daly has never lost an election, having been elected to the Anaheim Union High School District, Anaheim City Council, Mayor of Anaheim, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, and State Assemblyman. The overlap between the Supervisorial district and his Assembly district is quite significant, with Santa Ana, central Anaheim, eastern Garden Grove, and a sliver of Orange sitting in both districts. Daly’s Assembly district is actually more Latino than the Supervisorial district. While Daly would have to give up his Assembly seat to run for Supervisor, he’s already used up 10 of his 12-year term limit. If there is a non-Latino who could win this seat, it’s Daly.
(The Supervisorial district’s other resident legislator, Senator Tom Umberg (D), previously ran for Supervisor in 2007. He won in Santa Ana but lost due to Little Saigon, though that’s now been drawn out of the district. Umberg has four years left on his term limit in the Senate, but indications are that he would rather return to his successful law practice after the Senate, rather than head to the Board of Supervisors.)
In Tustin, only two Councilmembers are in the 2nd District (the other three are in the 3rd Supervisorial District): Beckie Gomez (D) and Barry Cooper (NPP). Gomez is certainly the stronger of the two, as Cooper is a first-term Councilman while Gomez is a third-term Councilwoman, who is currently in her second term as the County Board of Education member for a trustee area that overlaps the supervisorial district in Santa Ana, Tustin, and Garden Grove. Additionally, the demographics of the district would favor the Latina Gomez over the white Cooper. Running for the Board of Supervisors would also eliminate her future lawsuit for concurrently holding the offices of City Councilmember and County Board of Education (as La Habra Councilman Tim Shaw faced exactly that same issue earlier this month when he resigned from the County Board of Education).
Garden Grove is the smallest city in the new Second Supervisorial District (since most of the city is in the 1st District). The only Garden Grove Councilmember in the district is Kim Nguyen (D). (Councilwoman Stephanie Klopfenstein (R) lives next to the district border, but she is in the 1st District.) However, Nguyen came in fourth out of four candidates in the 2020 Supervisorial race, and that was with all of Garden Grove in the district. Redistricting has only further weakened her potential candidacy.
Of countywide elected officials, one lives in the district: Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen (R). The popular Nguyen is expected to run for re-election though, having repeatedly stated both publicly and privately that Clerk-Recorder is his dream job, having risen through the ranks of that office, where he has spent most of his career.
Next: Political Merry-Go-Round In South County
