In every election cycle, it is common for independent expenditure (IE) committees to weigh in in support of a candidate for a particular office. What you rarely, if ever see, is an IE committees sending out mail in support to two different candidates for the same office, who are ostensibly running against each other.
That’s precisely what is happening in the 5th Supervisor District race, where the powerful Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs has so far spent a combined total of more than $200,000 supporting the candidacies of Supervisor Katrina Foley, a liberal Democrat, and former Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, a conservative Republican.
The other candidates are state Senator Pat Bates and Newport Beach Councilman Kevin Muldoon.
It appears the AOCDS is targeting its pro-Harkey mailers to Republican voters, and hitting Democrats and No Party Preference voters with pro-Foley mailers.
A two-voter household in Irvine received these two AOCDS-funded mailers on the same day: the Harkey mailer addressed to the male Republican and the Foley to the female NPP voter:
To date, the AOCDS has spent $90,294.35 in support of Harkey, and $89,084.88 in support of Foley.
The AOCDS’ unorthodox strategy raises the question of whether it undercuts itself by generating confusion in households with mixed voter registrations.
Further complicating the matter is the AOCDS has formally endorsed Harkey, but not Foley.
Harkey’s campaign website features this endorsement quote from AOCDS President Juan Viramontes:
“It is with great pride to express our unanimous endorsement of your campaign for Orange County Supervisor, District 5.”
AOCDS President Juan Viramonte
At the same time, the Lincoln Club of Orange County’s 1962 PAC is waging a vigorous effort to take down Harkey and lift Bates. Thus far, the 1962 PAC has spent $61,797.28 attacking Harkey, and $9,050 in support of Bates.
Foley was elected to the Board of Supervisors in a March 2021 special election – during which the AOCDS focused its fire entirely on attacking former Supervisor and state Senator John Moorlach to the tune of nearly $300,000.
Another layer: the AOCDS was formerly a strong supporter of Bates. During her bruising 2006 supervisor contest with free-spending Cassie DeYoung, a significant IE effort supporting Bates was critical to her election victory.
According to observers with whom the OC Independent has spoken, the AOCDS’ unusual strategy probably stems from the unusual nature of the 5th Supervisor District race. The union endorsed Harkey early, before the new supervisor districts were drawn.
The Board of Supervisors subsequently approved a map that drew Foley out of the 2nd Supervisor District and into the 5th District with Harkey ( and later Bates and Muldoon).
“The unique nature of the 2022 election cycle included a late variable that many are factoring into their support – redistricting – which resulted in dramatically different supervisor districts and a shift of multiple fields,” said Jeff Corless, a long-time Orange County-based strategist and communications expert.
“Candidates previously running in one district are now running in another,” said Corless.
Others noted the shift put the AOCDS in a unique situation: how to stick with its endorsed candidate while not alienating a sitting supervisor who was unexpectedly drawn in to the race and who votes on your contract and approves the departmental budget.
The apparent solution: lift both into the November run-off.
