Huntington Beach Councilman Tony Strickland seems poised for a strong first-place finish in tomorrow’s 36th Senate District special election primary. The only real question seems to be whether he wins it outright tomorrow or goes to a run-off in late April.
Strickland, a conservative Republican and former state legislator, has been campaigning for the seat since last year. The then-incumbent, Janet Nguyen, was considered a heavy favorite to win election to the OC Board of Supervisors.
Nguyen has endorsed Strickland to succeed her.
Also running are two Democrats, Jimmy Pham and Julie Diep and another Republican, John Briscoe. Pham was decisively defeated last November by GOP Assemblyman Ti Tra, while Diep was elected to the Anaheim Elementary School District Board of Education in the same election. Briscoe is a former member of the Ocean View School District Board of Education; according to sources, he is running to build name identification for another school board campaign.
If Strickland is able to win 50%-plus-one of the vote in the primary, the election is over and he goes to the state Senate. If he falls short of that threshold, he will face the number two vote getter in an April 29 run-off.
Strickland has built a juggernaut campaign, garnering unified Republican support, endorsements from scores of local elected officials in SD36, and support from Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes and a slew of law enforcement. Strickland has run a tightly-focused campaign on the themes of tax reduction, fighting crime and opposition to Gov. Gavin Newsom.
READ: Tony Strickland Picks Up Slew Of Law Enforcement Endorsements Of Senate Bid
Newsom’s statewide approval rating is 42% – only five points higher than President Trump – although his negatives are much higher in the solidly Republican 36th Senate District.
Republicans have a nearly 4-point voter registration edge in SD36. That advantage grows to more than 10 points among high-propensity voters – who will have a disproportionate impact in low-turnout special election.
Coming off a race against Assemblyman Tri Ta, Pham had been considered Strickland’s principal Democrat opponent.
However, Pham failed to garner endorsements from the California Democratic Party. His fundraising has been anemic, raising a paltry $5,636.00 for his campaign.
Diep has raised $7,099; a search of the Secretary of State website turns up no contributions for Briscoe.
Strickland, by contrast, has raised $637,369.44 for the special election.
So far, significantly more Republicans than Democrats are returning their ballots. 57,610 Republicans have returned their ballots versus 40,625, with No Party Preference voters kicking in 16,850 ballots.
